Best calls. Biggest misses. Kept.

Abdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary

EHIQ 42% · market 65% at call · resolved NO

El-Sayed WON the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary on 2026-08-04, 48.5% to Haley Stevens' 47.5%, a 1-point margin. Outcome is YES. EHIQ had 42%, below even, so this is a MISS. NOTE FOR THE RECORD: the market had 65% and was right, so this is a call where the market beat EHIQ on a priced question.

Paris Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling

EHIQ 56% · market 35% at call · resolved NO

The Paris Court of Appeal ruled 2026-07-08 (formation solennelle, on remand from the Cour de cassation) that neither Vincent Bollore, Bollore SE, nor the 'Bollore group' controlled Vivendi -- all CIAM claims rejected, no mandatory tender obligation; the court held de facto control cannot attach to a 'group.' VIV fell ~10.3% on the ruling; CIAM announced a second cassation appeal (pending, does not affect this dated resolution). EHIQ final 56% on rules-against (revised 33->60->52->56, dated in thesis) vs market 35% at open -- the rapporteur-follow prior failed; the sell-side consensus was right. Resolved late (15 days past estimate) under the 2026-07-23 SLA clearing.

ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18

EHIQ 45% · market 26% at call · resolved NO

Call asserted ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18. ARCC closed $19.40 (week: 19.37/19.37/19.65/19.40) — never below $19.00. Outcome NO → miss. Resolution source: Nasdaq daily close 2026-09-18: $19.40 (yfinance).

Chong Won-oh win (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 85% · market 93% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald / France24, June 3 2026.

Oh Se-hoon retention (Seoul Mayoral 2026)

EHIQ 15% · market 8% at call · resolved NO

Korea Herald: Oh wins 5th term, margin 1.15pt / 60,259 votes.

Drake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)

EHIQ 10% · market 16% at call · resolved NO

Billboard / NME / Complex multi-outlet consensus.

BC Conservative Leadership — Elliott wins

EHIQ 80% · market 81% at call · resolved NO

Will the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?

EHIQ 92% · resolved NO

Not completed by 2026-10-04: RAMP's EDGAR filing list as of 2026-10-10 has no 8-K Item 2.01/3.01 or Form 25 after the 2026-08-17 vote; RAMP still trading on NYSE 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.92 -> MISS (timing; deal still pending). Basis note: the EHIQ number was supplied verbally on 2026-08-18; no written basis exists (prob_basis flags it).

Will the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?

EHIQ 86% · resolved NO

Not completed by 2026-10-07: NEE's Rule 425 filing of 2026-10-08 still refers to the pending transactions; no Item 2.01 through 2026-10-10; Dominion still trading 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.864 -> MISS (timing; deal still pending).

Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?

EHIQ 50% · resolved NO

Completed 2026-09-04 (closing 8-K Item 2.01 filed 2026-09-04), before the 2026-10-06 horizon. EHIQ 0.499 leaned NO -> MISS by the >=0.5 side rule.