EHIQ vs Prediction Markets
Every public probability call EHIQ makes is logged here against the prevailing market — Kalshi, Polymarket, or the closest comparable — and marked against tape post-resolution. Where we disagree with the market, the disagreement is dated and graded. This is the receipt.
This page tracks probability calls — full named predictions with EHIQ probability + market consensus + resolution grade. The /scoreboard tracks sensor signal fires — a different measurement (a confirmed fire is when the underlying ticker moved in the direction the sensor flagged). They’re two separate honesty metrics, not two versions of the same one.
Real-time calls only. Backtested validations listed separately below. Calibration notes = right outcome reached via imperfect rationale (e.g., Musk v Altman: 30% Musk-win called pre-verdict, correct on outcome but not on the statute-of-limitations mechanism). Counted separately to keep the hit-rate honest.
The thesis behind every call.
The receipts above are public. The full structural reasoning behind each one — the corpus-grep evidence, the per-justice / per-CEO scoring tables, the position-disclosure context, the next call before it hits this page — is in Premium.
- →Weekly thesis docs (5–10 pages each), pre-resolution
- →Pre-earnings calls + post-earnings honest grades
- →Premium Telegram channel — alerts before they're public
- →Position-disclosure context Eric won't post publicly
Active calls
78 openElections
35 calls2028 D primary — Buttigieg outperforms Newsom
Will Pete Buttigieg win more total delegates than Gavin Newsom in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?
2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)
Conditional on Tucker Carlson declaring as a 2028 R primary candidate with serious organization: will he win more total delegates than JD Vance?
JD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favorite
Will JD Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
EHIQ reads YES 16.4pp lower than Polymarket (32% vs 48%).
2028 presidency — JD Vance
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 3.9pp lower than Polymarket (16% vs 20%).
2028 presidency — Gavin Newsom
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 5.9pp higher than Polymarket (15% vs 9%).
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US presidential election?
2028 presidency — Josh Shapiro
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 4.9pp higher than Polymarket (8% vs 3%).
2028 presidency: Nikki Haley
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 7.0pp higher than Polymarket (7% vs 0%).
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 3.3pp higher than Polymarket (6% vs 3%).
2028 presidency — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 7.7pp lower than Polymarket (5% vs 13%).
2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 6.3pp lower than Polymarket (4% vs 10%).
2028 presidency — Tucker Carlson
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US presidential election?
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 3.0pp lower than Polymarket (2% vs 5%).
Dem House control 2026
Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?
Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
EHIQ reads YES 37.5pp lower than Polymarket (33% vs 71%).
Brad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
EHIQ reads YES 31.5pp higher than Polymarket (62% vs 31%).
Abdul El-Sayed (D) wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election
Will Abdul El-Sayed (D) win the 2026 Michigan Senate election on November 3, 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 9.6pp lower than Polymarket (61% vs 71%).
GA Senate — Ossoff retention
Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 34.3pp lower than Polymarket (62% vs 96%).
Gavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nomination
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
David Eby's NDP wins the most seats in the 2026 BC election
Will David Eby's NDP win the most seats in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia general election?
EHIQ reads YES 23.5pp higher than Polymarket (46% vs 23%).
Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)
Superseded by #560 — graded at its own dated number
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 44.0pp lower than Polymarket (43% vs 87%).
Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)
Superseded by #560 — graded at its own dated number
Will Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 42.5pp higher than Polymarket (55% vs 13%).
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (runoff 2026-10-25)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
EHIQ reads YES 7.0pp lower than Polymarket (80% vs 87%).
Bernie Sanders endorses James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
Josh Turek (D) wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Will Josh Turek (D) win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 5.2pp lower than Polymarket (37% vs 43%).
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?
EHIQ reads YES 16.5pp higher than Polymarket (45% vs 28%).
Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
EHIQ reads YES 31.5pp higher than Polymarket (68% vs 37%).
Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
EHIQ reads YES 24.9pp lower than Polymarket (62% vs 87%).
Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 24.5pp higher than Polymarket (57% vs 33%).
Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 6.5pp lower than Polymarket (47% vs 54%).
Jon Husted (R) wins the 2026 Ohio Senate election
Will Jon Husted (R) win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election on November 3, 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 21.0pp higher than Polymarket (60% vs 39%).
James Talarico wins the 2026 Texas Senate election
Will James Talarico (D) win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 6.5pp lower than Polymarket (56% vs 63%).
Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement
Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?
Mary Peltola defeats Dan Sullivan (Alaska Senate 2026)
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska US Senate election?
ME Senate — Collins (R) retention
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Stocks
25 callsSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO price
Will SPCX close BELOW its IPO price on the trading day of the 180-day lock-up expiration?
SpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10pp
Will SPCX 6-month total return (from IPO close) outperform QQQ total return by more than 10 percentage points?
Drake top Spotify artist 2026
Will Drake be the top artist on Spotify in 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 17.2pp higher than Polymarket (20% vs 3%).
GameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)
Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Drake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative units
Will Drake's 'Iceman' finish its first 52 weeks with cumulative US equivalent album units between 1.5M and 1.9M (point estimate 1.7M)?
Drake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecast
Will Drake's next deal land in $650M-$1.4B all-rights value to him AND with an ownership-bearing structure (P&D / outside partnership / own arm's-length entity), versus a conventional incumbent re-sign on Universal's terms?
Drake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027
Will Drake publicly exit his primary UMG recording deal (Republic / Cash Money / Young Money) by December 31, 2027 — defined as ANY of: (a) public announcement of departure from UMG, (b) public announcement of new label home, (c) public announcement of distribution-only / P&D structure replacing the primary recording deal, (d) lawsuit settlement disclosed as including exit terms?
Compagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascade
Will Compagnie de l'Odet SE (Euronext Paris: ODET) close above €2,500 cum-div on any trading day between 2026-06-03 and 2028-12-31?
CERO repays the consolidated note in full by the October 15 maturity
Does CERo Therapeutics Holdings repay the Consolidated Senior Secured Promissory Note (SRX Global, issued 2026-08-27) in full, principal and accrued interest, on or before its 2026-10-15 maturity, with no extension exercised?
Delaware Life's affiliated line prints below $13.0B in the Q3 statement
Will Delaware Life Insurance Company's Q3 2026 statutory statement report Total Investment in Parent, Subsidiaries and Affiliates below $13,000,000,000?
Clear Spring's affiliated line prints below $5.0B in the Q3 statement
Will Clear Spring Life and Annuity Company's Q3 2026 statutory statement report Total Investment in Parent, Subsidiaries and Affiliates below $5,000,000,000?
Delaware Life files Q3 with no further restatement of any prior period
Will Delaware Life Insurance Company file its Q3 2026 statutory statement without restating any prior period?
Opendoor Series K warrant early-expiration condition triggers before 2026-11-20 expiry
Will Opendoor's Series K warrants (OPENW, $9.00 exercise price) satisfy the Early Expiration Price Condition under the 2025 Warrant Agreement -- daily VWAP of OPEN common at or above $10.80 (120% of exercise price) on 20 trading days within any 30 consecutive VWAP trading day period -- on or before 5:00pm New York time, November 20, 2026?
Bad Bunny is the most-streamed global artist on Spotify for 2026
Will Bad Bunny be named the #1 most-streamed global artist on Spotify Wrapped 2026?
Khosla group closes the Seahawks purchase by Dec 31 2026
Does the Khosla group's purchase of the Seattle Seahawks close on or before 2026-12-31?
Walter's Chelsea minority stake sale is agreed or announced by Dec 31
Will an agreed sale of Mark Walter's minority stake in Chelsea FC be announced or reported as agreed on or before 2026-12-31?
Warner/Bain announce the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog by Dec 31 2026
Do Warner Music Group and Bain Capital publicly announce an agreement to acquire the Red Hot Chili Peppers catalog on or before 2026-12-31?
NBA awards the first NBA Europe franchises by Dec 31 2026
Does the NBA announce the awarded franchises (or host cities) for its FIBA-partnered European league on or before 2026-12-31?
An NFL team sells a minority stake at a $10B+ valuation by Dec 31 2026
Is a minority-stake sale in an NFL franchise announced at a team valuation of $10B or more on or before 2026-12-31?
LIV Golf closes its BC Partners-led investment by Dec 31 2026
Does LIV Golf announce the closing of the BC Partners-led investment transaction on or before 2026-12-31?
NBA approves expansion to 32 teams by Dec 31 2026
Does the NBA Board of Governors take a final vote approving expansion to 32 teams on or before 2026-12-31?
AM Best downgrades the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- by June 30 2027
Will AM Best downgrade the Financial Strength Rating of the Group 1001 Life Annuity Group below A- on or before 2027-06-30?
Mark Walter still controls the Los Angeles Dodgers on Dec 31 2027
On 2027-12-31, does Mark Walter remain the controlling owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, as recognized by Major League Baseball?
Apple outperforms the AI intelligence-layer basket (NVDA/MSFT/GOOGL/META) by Jan 2028
Will Apple (AAPL) deliver a higher total return than an equal-weight basket of NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META over the 18 months from 2026-07-06 to 2028-01-06? Entry anchors (2026-07-02 close): AAPL 308.63; equal-weight basket avg 382.03 (NVDA 194.83, MSFT 390.49, GOOGL 359.91, META 582.90). YES if AAPL total return exceeds the basket's equal-weight-average total return over the window.
Drake's next deal: services/distribution, not a major
When Drake's recording obligations to UMG end, will his next recording arrangement be an artist-services/distribution deal or a self-owned structure (HIT), rather than a new major-label recording deal (MISS)?
Legal & SCOTUS
2 callsDrake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissal
Will the Second Circuit affirm Judge Vargas's October 9 2025 dismissal in Graham v. UMG Recordings, Inc. (defamation suit over Kendrick Lamar's "Not Like Us" distribution)?
Live Nation DOJ consent judgment entered by Dec 31 2026
Is the DOJ/Live Nation antitrust consent judgment entered by a federal court on or before 2026-12-31?
Macro & Crypto
3 callsBTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026
Will BTC close below $50,000 (USD) on at least one calendar day between Jun 6 2026 and Dec 31 2026?
No Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates at least once in 2026?
Ethereum touches $1,500 before 2027
Will Ethereum trade at or below $1,500 at any point before Dec 31, 2026?
EHIQ reads YES 80.0pp higher than Polymarket (88% vs 8%).
Other
13 callsBlackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026
Will BX stock close below $150 on at least one trading day between Jun 6 2026 and Dec 31 2026?
Five9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
Will Five9 (FIVN) announce an acquisition, take-private deal, or material strategic restructuring (CEO change + cost-cut program of >20% headcount) before Dec 31 2027?
Braze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027
Will Braze (BRZE) announce an acquisition, take-private deal, or material strategic restructuring (CEO change + cost-cut program of >20% headcount) before Dec 31 2027?
Microsoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027
Will Microsoft and OpenAI announce a material renegotiation of their commercial partnership terms (revised profit-sharing, governance restructure, or equity-stake adjustment) by Dec 31 2027?
Harry Kane wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
EHIQ reads YES 21.3pp lower than Polymarket (45% vs 66%).
Lamine Yamal wins the 2026 Ballon d'Or
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
EHIQ reads YES 11.6pp lower than Polymarket (16% vs 28%).
TWG Sports level 3 mark below 90 at Q3 2026
Will Cliffwater Enhanced Lending Fund's NPORT-P for period 2026-09-30 report TWG SPORTS, LLC at a price below 90.00 (valUSD / balance * 100)? VOID if the position is absent from that filing.
SPCX trades below $135 IPO price before December 2026 lock-up expiry
Will SPCX print an intraday trade below its $135 IPO price on or before the standard 180-day lock-up expiry (2026-12-09)?
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PRAX relutrigine
Will the FDA approve relutrigine (PRAX) on/around 2026-09-27? developmental epileptic encephalopathies
Digimarc (DMRC) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
Does DMRC total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($6.66 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?
Intellicheck (IDN) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
Does IDN total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($4.13 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?
Mitek (MITK) outperforms the Russell 2000 on the AI-provenance re-rate
Does MITK total-return-outperform the Russell 2000 (IWM) from the 2026-07-10 close ($19.33 vs IWM $295.99) through Dec 31 2026?
Dodgers control sale announced by 30 Jun 2027
Will a transaction transferring CONTROL of the Los Angeles Dodgers - more than 50% of the equity of the holding entity, or the MLB-recognised control person moving away from Mark Walter - be publicly announced on or before 2027-06-30? Announcement, not closing. A minority-stake sale does not count. VOID on death or incapacity.
Recent resolutions
18 closedElections
3 closedPQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election
Will the Parti Quebecois win 64 or more seats (a majority of 127) in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election?
Any candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round
RESOLVED NO (hit) — TSE 2026-10-04: no candidate reached 50% of valid votes; runoff 2026-10-25 (Flávio ~47.6% / Lula ~44.5%, ~95%+ counted). The R1-outright call at 0.04 was made blind 2026-09-12 (reference class 2/9 outright R1 wins since 1989; zero conversions from ≤43% at 3 weeks out). Mechanism played out exactly: fragmented 12-candidate field, leader ~3pp short of 50% of valid votes. Falsifier (Lula ≥48% total + blank/null ≥8%, or Cury <3% with migration) never fired — Cury landed ~3%. Verdict entered per Eric 2026-10-04.
Pamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Republican U.S. Senate primary? Russell Fry is the loyalist dark horse; the establishment/media favorite Nancy Mace is not our pick. Trump's endorsement is dispositive.
Stocks
3 closedOpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 2026
Criterion re-stamped 2026-09-06, 9 days before resolution and before the outcome is known. The 2026-09-02 criterion graded on Polymarket settlement; that market does not exist. Graded on the absolute track against the outcome. Probability, direction and date unchanged.
Apple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event
Does Apple announce a foldable iPhone at its September 9 2026 product event?
Drake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 200
Will Drake's 'Iceman' total 4 or more weeks at #1 on the Billboard 200?
Macro & Crypto
2 closedv18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 2026
VOID — the predicate is not evaluable as written. Measured from v18_regime_state (canonical_regime.py: the single source of truth for subscriber-facing v18 reads), Q3 2026 window 2026-07-01..2026-09-30, 50 rows: the label 'STRESS' NEVER APPEARS. v18 emits DEFENSIVE (ANCHOR A) - GATE OFF (19 rows) and RISK-ON - n% TOWARD ANCHOR C (31 rows across 11 variants). 'STRESS' is the regime STACK's vocabulary, not v18's. WHAT THE DATA DOES SAY: DEFENSIVE/GATE OFF ran 17 CONSECUTIVE rows, 2026-07-21..2026-08-13, across 18 weekdays (one weekday absent), so wherever that single gap falls both halves still exceed 3 consecutive trading days. THEREFORE: if DEFENSIVE/GATE OFF is stamped as satisfying 'STRESS', this resolves YES with five times the required margin. That mapping is a methodology decision and has not been made, so the call is voided rather than credited. NOT resolvable NO: 'longest STRESS run = 0' reflects a vocabulary mismatch, not an absence of stress. Reopen with a stamped mapping. Series coverage caveat: 50 rows over 66 Q3 weekdays (75.8%).
Bank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 2026
BoC held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a 7th consecutive decision, 2026-09-02 09:45 ET statement. Consensus read (Reuters 35/35, OIS 95-99%) confirmed.
Other
10 closedWill the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?
Not completed by 2026-10-07: NEE's Rule 425 filing of 2026-10-08 still refers to the pending transactions; no Item 2.01 through 2026-10-10; Dominion still trading 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.864 -> MISS (timing; deal still pending).
Will the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
Not completed by 2026-10-04: the 2026-09-03 8-K says the redomestication needs Irish High Court sanction and is expected to close in Q4 2026; no completion filing through 2026-10-10; WFRD still trading 2026-10-09. EHIQ 0.10 -> HIT.
Will the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?
Completed 2026-09-04 (closing 8-K Item 2.01 filed 2026-09-04), before the 2026-10-06 horizon. EHIQ 0.499 leaned NO -> MISS by the >=0.5 side rule.
Will the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?
Completed 2026-09-29 (closing 8-K Item 2.01 + Form 25, both filed 2026-09-29), before the 2026-10-04 horizon. EHIQ 0.90 -> HIT. Basis note: the EHIQ number was supplied verbally on 2026-08-18; no written basis exists (prob_basis flags it).
ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18
Call asserted ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18. ARCC closed $19.40 (week: 19.37/19.37/19.65/19.40) — never below $19.00. Outcome NO → miss. Resolution source: Nasdaq daily close 2026-09-18: $19.40 (yfinance).
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE (Ultragenyx) UX111
Frozen rule: 'FDA's own action on the UX111 marketing application: the approval letter or the Drugs@FDA entry recording the action, or Abeona's 8-K disclosing the agency's decision. A CRL or a delay past the date is a NO.' — OUTCOME: FDA approved UX111 (Fayuvi) 2026-09-17, two days ahead of the 9/19 PDUFA date; 'on/around' satisfied. Full approval, first treatment for Sanfilippo A. Correction for the record: call text said (ABEO); UX111 is Ultragenyx (RARE).
FDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide
Will the FDA approve rusfertide (PTGX) on/around 2026-09-30? polycythemia vera
BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%
Will BCRED's Q2 2026 reported non-accrual rate exceed 1.0% (vs Q1 0.6% and large-BDC peer average 1.3%)?
FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1
Will FSK's Q2 2026 reported non-accrual rate increase more than 50 basis points vs Q1 2026?
FDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy
Will the FDA approve DTX401 gene therapy (RARE) on/around 2026-08-23? glycogen storage disease Ia
Historical validation (backtested)
4 casesHow the framework was validated on past events — not real-time calls, and not part of the record above. Methodology evidence only.
Louisiana v Callais — VRA Section 2 narrowed
Directionally correct (VRA Sec.2 narrowed, 6-3, Apr 29). Backfilled after decision; excluded from live record.
Carney USMCA concessions
3 of 3 predicted concessions occurred. EHIQ register-on-political-language framework working internationally.
Biden 2024 — collapse predicted at Hur interview
4 months ahead of polls. EHIQ register-on-interview-language called the collapse.
Brexit 2016 — EHIQ register called LEAVE
Retrospective validation. 59 days lead time. Markets at 18% LEAVE; EHIQ at 70%+. The reference receipt for the framework.
Why we think we beat the wisdom of crowds
Prediction markets are a form of crowd wisdom — they aggregate what informed traders are willing to bet at any moment. They're good at synthesizing what the market already knows. They're not good at surfacing what the market hasn't noticed yet.
EHIQ is a structural framework, not a sentiment aggregator. We score the language patterns of decision-makers — CEOs, judges, candidates, central bankers — and detect specific signatures that correlate with downstream events. The framework was built and back-tested on historical cases (Brexit 2016, Biden 2024 collapse, Carney concessions) — that is a backtest, methodology, not a live track record. Since being applied to active markets, every call is logged in real time, before resolution — Bulgaria 2026, NXDR Q1, OPEN Q1 (Reffkin pattern), DAVE, PSEC Q3 (Pebbles thesis), Musk–Altman (jury, May 2026). The real-time calls are the receipt above. Every one is graded in public, hits and any future misses alike; none has resolved as a miss yet, and any that does is logged here with equal prominence. The backtest is how the framework was validated, not a promise of returns.
Why this works on a market like Polymarket or Kalshi. Most traders use polls, news, sentiment, or vibes. Almost nobody scores the language of the principals. When we identify a signal in a candidate's debate cadence, a CEO's earnings call, a judge's questioning, or a co-defendant's deposition diary — we have edge over a market that hasn't metabolized that signal yet. By the time the market does, the EHIQ position has already been on the record for days, weeks, or months.
Three reasons crowd wisdom fails on these calls.
- Aggregation lag. Crowds need information to be public AND consensual to move. EHIQ scores primary-source language as it's spoken. We're upstream of news cycles.
- Generalist vs specialist. Most market participants don't know what specific patterns to look for in a CEO call or a judicial questioning. EHIQ has 10+ years of calibrated pattern libraries that retail prediction traders don't replicate.
- Narrative momentum. Crowds chase narratives. Drake's Iceman, Musk-Altman, the LA mayoral — these are stories with established frames that bias prediction-market pricing. The structural reality often diverges from the narrative.
We'll be wrong sometimes. That's priced in. The structural edge isn't about being right every time; it's about being right systematically when the divergence is greater than the noise. Calls that miss get logged with the same prominence as hits. The dated list above is the receipt.