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ElectionActive
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election (runoff 2026-10-25)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
80%
Edge
-7.0pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 80% on October 6, 2026 when the market was at 84%.
Market has since moved up to 87% · +2.8pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 2 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Starts from the market price (0.842 on 2026-10-06) and a base rate: the first-round leader has won all 7 Brazilian runoffs since 1989. We take 4.2 points off for the risk that the first-round surge overstates momentum, since late minor-candidate flows and polling bias are partly priced in already. Our language read of the candidates is a cross-check only and adds no probability.
Opened
October 6, 2026
Expected resolution
October 25, 2026
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