EHIQ
50%−20pp
was 70% (Mon May 04)
Market
50%+48pp
was 2% (Tue May 19)
Divergence
−0pp
was +68pp
What changed today
EHIQ probability then → now, the market then → now, and what the divergence did. A call that has not moved says so; unchanged is not dressed as fresh. Deltas come from the authoritative snapshots and the stamped basis records — never from inference.
EHIQ
18%−37pp
was 55% (Thu May 28)
Market
35%unchanged
since Mon Jun 01
Divergence
−17pp
was +20pp
EHIQ
62%+29pp
was 33% (Mon Oct 12)
Market
31%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+32pp
was +3pp
Restated by eric
EHIQ
33%−29pp
was 62% (Mon Oct 12)
Market
71%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−37pp
was −8pp
Restated by eric
EHIQ
37%−24pp
was 61% (Fri Oct 09)
Market
43%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−5pp
was +19pp
Restated by desk:eric 2026-10-09 (T2: 'stamped to all except GA')
EHIQ
30%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
40%+16pp
was 25% (Mon May 18)
Divergence
−10pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
10%unchanged
since Sun Apr 26
Market
16%+15pp
was 1% (Thu May 14)
Divergence
−6pp
was +9pp
EHIQ
61%+16pp
was 45% (Fri Oct 09)
Market
71%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−10pp
was −25pp
Restated by desk:eric 2026-10-09 (T2: 'stamped to all except GA')
2028 presidency — JD Vance
election
EHIQ
16%−11pp
was 27% (Sat May 09)
Market
20%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−4pp
was +7pp
Restated
EHIQ
40%−10pp
was 50% (Sun Apr 19)
Market
42%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−1pp
was +9pp
Restated
Dem House control 2026
election
EHIQ
92%+7pp
was 85% (Mon Oct 12)
Market
91%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+2pp
was −6pp
Restated by desk:eric 2026-10-12 (re-derive, verified only)
EHIQ
62%+7pp
was 55% (Sat Oct 10)
Market
87%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−25pp
was −31pp
Restated by desk:eric 2026-10-10 (T2: 'Iowa Governor: reprice to 0.62' -> model value 0.616)
EHIQ
46%−3pp
was 49% (Sun Sep 27)
Market
23%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+24pp
was +27pp
Restated
EHIQ
5%+1pp
was 4% (Sat May 09)
Market
13%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−8pp
was −9pp
Restated
EHIQ
10%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
20%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−10pp
was −10pp
EHIQ
28%unchanged
since Fri Sep 25
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
60%unchanged
since Tue Jun 02
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Dodgers control sale announced by 30 Jun 2027
sports-ownership
EHIQ
18%unchanged
since Fri Sep 25
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
85%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
90%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−5pp
was −5pp
EHIQ
15%unchanged
since Thu Sep 03
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
32%unchanged
since Thu Jul 02
Market
48%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−16pp
was −16pp
Restated
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Thu Aug 13
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
2028 presidency — Josh Shapiro
election
EHIQ
8%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
3%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+5pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
16%unchanged
since Tue Jun 30
Market
15%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+1pp
was +1pp
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Sat Jul 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Mon Jul 13
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
17%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
34%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−17pp
was −17pp
EHIQ
4%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
6%unchanged
since Sun Oct 04
Divergence
−2pp
was −2pp
Restated
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Fri May 22
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
56%unchanged
since Tue Sep 29
Market
63%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−6pp
was −6pp
Restated
EHIQ
63%—
since Fri May 22
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Dem Senate control 2026
election
EHIQ
47%unchanged
since Sun Apr 19
Market
65%unchanged
since Tue Oct 06
Divergence
−18pp
was −18pp
2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg
election
EHIQ
6%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
3%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+3pp
was +3pp
EHIQ
42%unchanged
since Mon Jul 13
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
33%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
28%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
+5pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
12%unchanged
since Mon Jun 01
Market
36%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−24pp
was −24pp
2028 presidency — Tucker Carlson
election
EHIQ
2%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
2%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+0pp
was +0pp
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Thu Aug 13
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
45%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
28%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+17pp
was +17pp
Restated
EHIQ
16%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
28%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−12pp
was −12pp
Restated
2028 presidency — Marco Rubio
election
EHIQ
10%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
8%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+2pp
was +2pp
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
8%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
6%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+3pp
was +3pp
EHIQ
68%unchanged
since Wed Sep 02
Market
37%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+32pp
was +32pp
Restated
EHIQ
80%unchanged
since Thu May 28
Market
81%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−1pp
was −1pp
EHIQ
57%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
33%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+24pp
was +24pp
Restated
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Thu Aug 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Thu Jun 04
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Drake top Spotify artist 2026
corporate
EHIQ
20%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
3%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+17pp
was +17pp
Restated
EHIQ
78%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Graham's SC Senate seat stays Republican, decided in the Aug 11 GOP primary by Trump's endorsement
election
EHIQ
87%unchanged
since Sun Jul 12
Market
85%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+3pp
was +3pp
Restated
2028 presidency — Jon Ossoff
election
EHIQ
4%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
10%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−6pp
was −6pp
EHIQ
92%unchanged
since Tue Aug 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
80%unchanged
since Tue Oct 06
Market
87%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−7pp
was −7pp
Restated by eric
EHIQ
38%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
46%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
−8pp
was −8pp
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Sat Aug 22
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
GA Senate — Ossoff retention
election
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Sun Apr 19
Market
96%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−34pp
was −34pp
Restated
2028 presidency: Nikki Haley
election
EHIQ
7%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
0%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+7pp
was +7pp
EHIQ
20%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
43%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
−22pp
was −22pp
MI Senate — Peters retention
election
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Apr 19
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
47%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
54%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−7pp
was −7pp
Restated
EHIQ
67%unchanged
since Sun Sep 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
was +7pp
Restated
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
22%unchanged
since Sat Sep 12
Market
21%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+2pp
was +2pp
Restated
EHIQ
35%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
45%unchanged
since Wed Sep 02
Market
66%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−21pp
was −21pp
Restated
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
NXDR Q1 FY26 — beat consensus
earnings
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Wed May 06
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
72%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
election
EHIQ
2%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
5%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−3pp
was −3pp
EHIQ
15%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
10%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+5pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Sat Jul 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
60%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
28%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
45%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
−16pp
was −16pp
EHIQ
82%unchanged
since Sat Jun 27
Market
72%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
+10pp
was +10pp
EHIQ
55%−17pp
was 72% (Sun Aug 16)
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Wed Sep 02
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
was +3pp
EHIQ
85%unchanged
since Fri Jul 24
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Wed Jun 03
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
60%unchanged
since Sat Jul 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
NC Senate — Tillis retention
election
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Apr 19
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
5%—
since Wed Aug 05
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
38%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
was +26pp
EHIQ
66%unchanged
since Thu May 28
Market
35%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
+31pp
was +31pp
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
60%unchanged
since Sun Sep 27
Market
39%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+21pp
was +21pp
Restated
ARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-18
private_credit
EHIQ
45%unchanged
since Thu Aug 13
Market
31%unchanged
since Tue Sep 08
Divergence
+14pp
was +14pp
Microsoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027
corporate_strategy
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
85%unchanged
since Sun Apr 19
Market
95%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−9pp
no prior comparison
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Fri Oct 02
Market
28%unchanged
since Mon Oct 05
Divergence
+28pp
was +28pp
Restated
EHIQ
10%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
15%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
−5pp
was −5pp
2028 presidency — Gavin Newsom
election
EHIQ
15%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
9%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+6pp
was +6pp
EHIQ
90%unchanged
since Sat Jun 27
Market
95%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−5pp
was −5pp
EHIQ
30%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Wed Apr 15
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Drake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K
corporate
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Mon Jun 08
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Aug 16
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Mon May 11
Market
25%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Divergence
+38pp
was +38pp
EHIQ
86%unchanged
since Fri Aug 21
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
20%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
42%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−22pp
was −22pp
EHIQ
40%—
since Fri Jun 12
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Mon Jul 13
Market
4%unchanged
since Sun Jul 19
Divergence
+46pp
was +46pp
EHIQ
30%unchanged
since Sat Jun 27
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
GameStop acquires eBay
corporate
EHIQ
8%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
14%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Divergence
−6pp
was −6pp
EHIQ
5%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
0%unchanged
since Mon May 11
Divergence
+5pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Mon May 04
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
28%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
40%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−12pp
was −12pp
EHIQ
20%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
18%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+2pp
was +2pp
EHIQ
66%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
45%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+21pp
was +21pp
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Mon Jul 06
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
FSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q1
private_credit
EHIQ
60%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
35%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
52%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
49%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+3pp
was +3pp
Mark Mulroney as next CPC leader
election
EHIQ
45%unchanged
since Sat Apr 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Tue Apr 01
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
90%unchanged
since Mon Jun 08
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
40%unchanged
since Thu Jul 02
Market
95%unchanged
since Wed Sep 16
Divergence
−55pp
was −55pp
EHIQ
30%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
45%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Sun Aug 23
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Thu Aug 06
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
10%unchanged
since Fri Aug 21
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
52%unchanged
since Mon Jul 13
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Aug 30
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
92%unchanged
since Sun Aug 16
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Sun Aug 30
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
40%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Wed May 06
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
70%unchanged
since Mon Apr 25
Market
18%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
+52pp
was +52pp
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Sun Aug 30
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
2%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
6%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−4pp
was −4pp
EHIQ
88%unchanged
since Thu Jul 02
Market
8%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
+80pp
was +80pp
BCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%
private_credit
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sun Jun 07
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
87%unchanged
since Thu Jun 25
Market
88%unchanged
since Mon Oct 12
Divergence
−1pp
was −1pp
EHIQ
55%unchanged
since Sun Aug 16
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
45%−27pp
was 72% (Sat Aug 15)
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
86%unchanged
since Thu Jul 02
Market
71%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
+15pp
was +15pp
EHIQ
25%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
10%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+15pp
was +15pp
EHIQ
75%+25pp
was 50% (Thu Aug 06)
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated · drafts/UX111_calibration_memo_2026-09-09.md
EHIQ
25%unchanged
since Sun Jul 12
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
72%unchanged
since Tue Jun 02
Market
77%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
−5pp
was −5pp
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Sat May 09
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
62%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
SpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%
corporate
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
42%unchanged
since Sat Jul 18
Market
65%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
−23pp
was −23pp
EHIQ
65%unchanged
since Mon Jun 08
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
90%unchanged
since Sun Aug 30
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
80%unchanged
since Sun Aug 30
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
50%unchanged
since Mon Jul 13
Market
8%unchanged
since Sun Jul 19
Divergence
+42pp
was +42pp
EHIQ
90%unchanged
since Tue Aug 18
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
Restated
EHIQ
80%unchanged
since Sun Aug 16
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
75%unchanged
since Thu Feb 01
Market
15%—
no snapshot history
Divergence
+60pp
was +60pp
EHIQ
95%unchanged
since Wed Sep 02
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
no prior comparison
EHIQ
35%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
34%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+1pp
was +1pp
EHIQ
11%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
1%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+10pp
was +10pp
EHIQ
7%unchanged
since Sun May 10
Market
2%unchanged
since Sun Jun 21
Divergence
+5pp
was +5pp
EHIQ
56%unchanged
since Wed May 20
Market
——
no snapshot history
Divergence
—
was +21pp