Will Jon Husted (R) win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election on November 3, 2026?

Ohio: the register reads Husted calmer than Brown; October polls run Brown +2 to +4. This number is a language read only. It does not use polls (Eric's directive, 2026-09-27). The election momentum scorer reads Husted -0.41 vs Brown -2.89, a margin of 2.49 that calibrates to 66%; the production LAS engine, cleaned of two contaminated Brown documents, reads a tie (18.6 vs 18.6). EHIQ 60% sits between the two instruments. The polls disagree: aggregates run Brown +2.3 to +4.3 (RCP +3.1 as of Oct 8); five September-October polls range from Husted +1 (co/efficient, Oct 5-6) to Brown +8 (Marist, Sep 24-27); ratings run Tossup to Lean D. If Brown wins, the register read a comeback campaign as weakness, and the miss publishes at full size.

EHIQ probability 60% at open → 60% now (never revised). The number has not moved since the call opened.

Resolution expected 2026-11-03. The resolution rule and source are stamped on the full research page.

The structured basis for this call is on record.