ElectionActive

Jon Husted (R) wins the 2026 Ohio Senate election

Will Jon Husted (R) win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election on November 3, 2026?

premise verified 0h ago

EHIQ

60%

Polymarket

39%

live market →

Edge

+21.0pp

EHIQ above market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 60% on September 27, 2026 when the market was at 42%.

Market has since moved down to 39% · -2.5pp from open

EHIQ vs market over time · 17 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Ohio: the register reads Husted calmer than Brown; October polls run Brown +2 to +4. This number is a language read only. It does not use polls (Eric's directive, 2026-09-27). The election momentum scorer reads Husted -0.41 vs Brown -2.89, a margin of 2.49 that calibrates to 66%; the production LAS engine, cleaned of two contaminated Brown documents, reads a tie (18.6 vs 18.6). EHIQ 60% sits between the two instruments. The polls disagree: aggregates run Brown +2.3 to +4.3 (RCP +3.1 as of Oct 8); five September-October polls range from Husted +1 (co/efficient, Oct 5-6) to Brown +8 (Marist, Sep 24-27); ratings run Tossup to Lean D. If Brown wins, the register read a comeback campaign as weakness, and the miss publishes at full size.

1.2026-09-27Election-specialized momentum scorer (20-race calibrated logistic): Husted -0.41 vs Brown -2.89 mean momentum, margin 2.49 — widest separation on the 9/27 six-race Senate board. Raw calibrated read: 66%.
2.2026-09-27Production LAS engine (coached_denial_scorer_v4 + deception_detection_v2, the 179k-earnings-corpus instrument): Husted mean LAS 18.6 (n=6) vs Brown 23.9 (n=6) — same direction, calmer = stronger.
3.2026-09-27Control pass: Brown corpus carries a 35,554-word livestream-shaped doc (LAS 34.9) and a caps-lock third-party package (LAS 34.0). Excluded, Brown's mean LAS = 18.6 — a dead tie. The stamp (60%) sits between the two instruments and names the disagreement.
4.2026-10-12Polls recorded against the number (not inputs): co/efficient Oct 5-6 Husted +1; SSRS Sep 29-Oct 5 Brown +6; NYT/Siena Sep 22-Oct 1 Brown +3; Marist Sep 24-27 Brown +8; Suffolk/USA Today Sep 23-27 Brown +3. Aggregates Brown +2.3 to +4.3 (RCP +3.1, Oct 8). Ratings: Tossup (Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections) to Lean D.
5.2026-10-12Next read: refresh the language read on fresh Husted and Brown speech. Declared gap: no long-form Husted corpus exists yet (no 20-minute-plus videos), so the refresh may be thin; no Husted-Brown debate is scheduled as of 10/12.

Opened

September 27, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

Get an alert the moment this call resolves.

Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.