EHIQ Track Record
The receipts.
Dated predictions, public outcomes. Every call posted before resolution; nothing retroactive. Probabilities locked at call time; markets cited from Kalshi or Polymarket where available.
Hit rate
—
rate withheld — see methodology
Tracked
78
real-time calls (backtests excluded)
Open
76
live calls awaiting resolution
Anchor receipts
LA Mayor — Raman takes #2 runoff slot (over Pratt)
Called May 28, 2026 · Resolved Aug 26, 2026
EHIQ
18%
vs
manual
35%
-17 pp vs 35%
CORRECTED 2026-08-26. The original verdict was recorded 2026-06-03 on 51% of the count, when Pratt led Raman ~29% to ~21%. Late mail ballots reversed it: final certified result Raman 29.0% (247,781) advanced to the Nov 3 runoff, Pratt 25.5% (217,977) eliminated. Raman DID take the #2 runoff slot, so this call resolves YES and EHIQ's 18% was a MISS against a market at 35% -- the market was closer. Reported by a subscriber. Verdict and archived source: call_resolutions id 3.
Drake Iceman first-week sales (525K call)
Called May 4, 2026 · Resolved Jun 28, 2026
EHIQ
50%
vs
polymarket
50%
0 pp vs 50%
Billboard / Luminate: 463,000 units (449K streaming).
All resolved real-time calls
MISSWill the merger described in LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. (RAMP)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?92%Oct 10, 2026MISSWill the merger described in NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE, NEE-PN, NEE-PS, NEE-PT, NEE-PU, NEE-PV, NEE-PW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-09) be completed on or before 2026-10-07?86%Oct 10, 2026HITWill the merger described in Weatherford International plc (WFRD)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?10%Oct 10, 2026MISSWill the merger described in SOUNDHOUND AI, INC. (SOUN, SOUNW)'s S-4 (filed 2026-07-08) be completed on or before 2026-10-06?50%Oct 10, 2026HITWill the merger described in Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)'s DEFM14A (filed 2026-07-06) be completed on or before 2026-10-04?90%Oct 10, 2026MISSPQ wins 64+ seats (a majority) in the 2026 Quebec election55% / mkt 28%Oct 6, 2026HITAny candidate wins outright in Brazil's 2026 first round4% / mkt 6%Oct 5, 2026RESOLVEDv18 model prints STRESS regime for at least 3 consecutive days in Q3 202672%Oct 3, 2026HITOpenAI releases GPT-6 by September 15 202650%Sep 19, 2026MISSARCC closes below $19.00 on 2026-09-1845% / mkt 31%Sep 18, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE (Ultragenyx) UX11175%Sep 17, 2026HITApple announces a foldable iPhone at the September 9 2026 event80%Sep 14, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — PTGX rusfertide50%Sep 5, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — NUVL zidesamtinib50%Sep 5, 2026HITBank of Canada holds the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2 202695%Sep 2, 2026HITBCRED Q2 2026 non-accrual rate exceeds 1.0%65%Sep 1, 2026MISSFSK Q2 2026 non-accrual rate increases >50bps vs Q160%Sep 1, 2026MISSPamela Evette wins the SC GOP Senate primary (Fry the dark horse, not Mace)25%Sep 1, 2026HITFDA decision (PDUFA) — RARE DTX401 gene therapy50%Sep 1, 2026HITDrake 'Iceman' weeks at #1 on Billboard 20072% / mkt 77%Sep 1, 2026HITSeahawks sale ratified at the August 26 owners meeting92%Aug 30, 2026MISSAbdul El-Sayed wins the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary42% / mkt 65%Aug 13, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes AGAINST Replimune RP1 (melanoma)70%Aug 13, 2026MISSFDA advisory committee votes favorably on Capricor deramiocel (DMD)60%Aug 13, 2026MISSv18 BTC regime shifted to risk-on (gate ON, score 0.619)62%Jul 23, 2026MISSParis Court of Appeal — Bolloré "de facto control" ruling56%Jul 23, 2026HITPezeshkian out by June 30 2026 (Iranian president fade)12% / mkt 36%Jul 23, 2026MISSFuture performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 4%Jul 20, 2026MISSDrake performs at the 2026 World Cup final halftime show50% / mkt 8%Jul 20, 2026HITNRSC v. FEC (No. 24-621) — coordinated party expenditure limits struck70%Jun 30, 2026HITLittle v. Hecox / West Virginia v. B.P.J. — state bans on transgender girls in female sports82% / mkt 72%Jun 30, 2026HITTrump v. Barbara (No. 25-365) — birthright citizenship EO struck down78%Jun 30, 2026HITTrump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332) — Humphrey's Executor overturned75%Jun 29, 2026HITTrump v. Cook (No. 25A312) — can the President fire a Fed Governor without cause?30%Jun 29, 2026HITDrake Iceman Week 4 EAU > 120K75%Jun 28, 2026MISSDrake Iceman Kendrick mention (Kalshi fade)10% / mkt 16%Jun 28, 2026HITSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day close market cap > $2 trillion55%Jun 28, 2026MISSSpaceX (SPCX) — first-day pop > 20%50%Jun 28, 2026
Currently open (25)
Live calls awaiting resolution. Premium subscribers see the full thesis behind each.
OPEN2028 R primary — Tucker beats Vance head-to-head (if both run)EHIQ 35%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENJD Vance is overrated as the 2028 GOP favoriteEHIQ 32%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — JD VanceEHIQ 16%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPEN2028 presidency — Gavin NewsomEHIQ 15%resolves Nov 7, 2028OPENDem House control 2026EHIQ 92%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENOlivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 33%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENBrad Bradford win (Toronto Mayor 2026)EHIQ 62%resolves Oct 26, 2026OPENAbdul El-Sayed (D) wins the 2026 Michigan Senate electionEHIQ 61%resolves Nov 3, 2026OPENGA Senate — Ossoff retentionEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 4, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 180-day lock-up close below IPO priceEHIQ 35%resolves Dec 9, 2026OPENSpaceX (SPCX) — 6-month total return outperforms QQQ by >10ppEHIQ 40%resolves Dec 14, 2026OPENBlackstone (BX) stock closes below $150 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENBTC closes below $50,000 on at least one day by EOY 2026EHIQ 50%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake v UMG — 2d Cir affirms Vargas dismissalEHIQ 75%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENNo Fed rate hike in 2026 (fade the hike consensus)EHIQ 40%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake top Spotify artist 2026EHIQ 20%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENGameStop acquires eBay (Cohen $125 bid)EHIQ 8%resolves Dec 31, 2026OPENDrake 'Iceman' Year-1 cumulative unitsEHIQ 60%resolves May 15, 2027OPENDrake next deal — $1.07B all-rights forecastEHIQ 62%resolves Nov 20, 2027OPENFive9 (FIVN) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 60%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENBraze (BRZE) announces acquisition, take-private, or material restructuring by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENMicrosoft and OpenAI announce material renegotiation of partnership terms by EOY 2027EHIQ 65%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENDrake exits UMG primary recording deal by EOY 2027EHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2027OPENGavin Newsom — 2028 Democratic nominationEHIQ 16%resolves Aug 31, 2028OPENCompagnie de l'Odet — pyramid-simplification cascadeEHIQ 55%resolves Dec 31, 2028
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