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Abdul El-Sayed (D) wins the 2026 Michigan Senate election
Will Abdul El-Sayed (D) win the 2026 Michigan Senate election on November 3, 2026?
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
61%
Edge
-9.6pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 60% on September 27, 2026 when Polymarket was at 74%.
Revised to 61% based on new analysis — see thesis updates below for revision history.
Market has since moved down to 71% · -3.5pp from open
EHIQ vs market over time · 19 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Repriced 2026-10-09 on the debate spot read. In the 10/08 debate, scored speaker by speaker (71% of candidate words attributed, 5/5 press-quote checks), El-Sayed's momentum read -0.49 against Rogers' -1.04, a 0.55 margin for El-Sayed. Our 20-race calibration, in which the spot leader won 17 of 20, maps that margin to 60.9% for El-Sayed. The scorer sees no market prices. Caveat: debate-against-debate reads are untested in that calibration, and a 0.55 margin sits at its low end.
- 1.Debate spot read 10/08: El-Sayed -0.49 vs Rogers -1.04 (margin 0.55)
- 2.20-race calibration: the spot leader won 17 of 20
- 3.Debate-vs-debate reads untested; low margin
Opened
September 27, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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