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Dem House control 2026
Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?
no liveness subject (nothing to death-check)
EHIQ
92%
(60-70%)
Edge
+1.8pp
within noise
The call vs the market, dated
Opened April 19, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 54 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Democrats win the House: EHIQ 92.3%, the simple mean of three verified forecast models (Silver Bulletin ~93%, FiftyPlusOne 99%, VoteHub polls-and-fundamentals 85%, all as of 2026-10-11), with no prediction-market input.
- 1.Forecast anchor: Silver Bulletin model, Democrats 93.1% to win the House as of 2026-10-08 (avg 238.7 D seats).
- 2.Generic ballot: D 49.3 - R 41.9 (D+7.4), October 2026 average.
- 3.Held below the model: one shared systematic-polling-error risk across the stack. Superseded 2026-10-12: the May desk judgment at 65%.
Opened
April 19, 2026
Expected resolution
November 4, 2026
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