Olivia Chow re-election (Toronto Mayor 2026)

FLIPPED 2026-10-12 (stamped): 62% → 33% — the CBC debate (Oct 8) was Chow's worst night of the cycle on the language read: confidence 5.9→3.0, certainty 3.4→1.7, desperation 4.1→6.2, self-repair 0.7→2.2, momentum −0.34 against Bradford's +0.83 (margin −1.17, 4× the no-signal band). The caption-artifact control says it was the performance, not the instrument. The spot model maps the flip to Bradford 0.653; Chow carries the complement at 0.33 after the residual tail. The October polls (weighted +6.2 Chow, narrowing) are the lagging indicator the instrument claims to lead — the falsifier is stated on the Bradford card and holds here: if Chow's poll lead holds ≥ +4 through the final wave, this flip was wrong at full size and reverts with the receipt. Resolves Oct 26.