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ElectionActive
Flávio Bolsonaro win (Brazil 2026)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Superseded by #560 — the current EHIQ number on this question. This call stays on the record and is graded at its own dated number.
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
43%
(18-27%)
Edge
-44.0pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 44 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
September 2026 read, same blind basis and fact-check as the Lula pair (38 confirmed, 0 dropped; basis drafts/RESEARCH_brazil_2026_race_blind_2026-09-18.md). The May stamp (22%) was made against a different race - pre-convention, Tarcisio live, field mass real - and the September structure demolished it: the runoff is a statistical tie in the aggregate and AtlasIntel, the best 2022 house, has Flavio ahead. 2022 pollsters missed 6-7 points rightward; third-lane transfers lean right; his base is judicially inelastic; his father's imprisonment is mobilization fuel without candidate baggage. The bear case is the frame: a second-place finish on Oct 4 keeps the 7-for-7 first-round-leader pattern against him. Restated 22% to 43% on 2026-09-20. Resolves Oct 25.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
October 25, 2026
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