ME Senate — Collins (R) retention

↗️ EHIQ LEAN: Collins stronger than expected (+3.5pp) September 2026 rebuild for the Jackson matchup — the prior text tested a withdrawn candidate (Platner withdrew July 10; Troy Jackson nominated at the July 25 convention). The September polls say a true toss-up: UML's survey center (Sep 24) has Jackson 46-45, while WABI/Maine Public the same week has Collins +3 — a 4-point spread inside ten days. Collins's favorability is underwater 10-19 points in three houses (Emerson 38/57, UNH 35/53, CNN 41/51); Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections and DDHQ all sit at toss-up or Lean D. What keeps this at 40 and not at the market: the documented Collins-specific polling miss — she has outrun her polls in every one of her five Senate races, and Maine's ranked-choice-ish split electorate breaks late for incumbents with her profile. EHIQ 40% vs Polymarket 36.5%.