← All calls
ElectionActive
Democrats win the 2026 Iowa governor race
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
62%
(45-65%)
Edge
-24.9pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 55% on September 2, 2026 when Polymarket was at 77%.
Revised to 62% based on new analysis — see thesis updates below for revision history.
Market has since moved up to 87% · +10.0pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 40 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
Repriced 2026-10-10 on the 10/06 KWQC/St. Ambrose debate. Speakers were separated by voice (98% of candidate words attributed, 7/7 press-quote checks); Sand's momentum read -0.23 against Lahn's -0.87, a 0.64 margin for Sand. The 20-race calibration maps that to 61.6% for the Democratic nominee, up from our earlier 55%. The move is toward the market; we stay below it because Iowa voted R+13 for president in 2024 and open seats in states this red have tended to close toward the federal lean. Caveat: debate-against-debate reads are untested, and voice attribution is new to a stamped call.
- 1.Debate spot read 10/06: Sand -0.23 vs Lahn -0.87 (margin 0.64)
- 2.Moved toward the market from 0.55
- 3.R+13 state; open seats close toward the federal lean
Opened
September 2, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
Get an alert the moment this call resolves.
Every EHIQ call resolves on a date, in public. Subscribe free and we email you when this one grades, plus the weekly divergence leaderboard.