ElectionActive

Republicans win the 2026 Georgia governor race

Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

premise verified 0h ago

EHIQ

47%

Polymarket

54%

Edge

-6.5pp

EHIQ below market

The call vs the market, dated

EHIQ called this at 47% on September 12, 2026 when Polymarket was at 42%.

Market has since moved up to 54% · +11.5pp toward EHIQ view

EHIQ vs market over time · 32 data points · refreshed daily

EHIQMarket

Thesis

Machine proposal, blind to the market, fact-checked before stamping (19 claims: 11 confirmed, 6 softened, 0 dropped): the 2018 open-seat comp (Kemp won +1.4 under a D+8.6 wave with Trump at ~41%) adjusted for a worse 2026 environment puts R near 0.43; +~6pp for the nominee draw — Rick Jackson, the self-funding healthcare billionaire who beat Trump's AND Kemp's candidate (Burt Jones) 52.6-47.4 in the June 16 runoff, then absorbed the establishment — vs Bottoms' attackable mayoral record (the revived 2018 plane-ticket story). Cross-check: the two most recent LV polls are a tie in a D+11 environment, with GA's historic R understatement. Counter-signal logged: first GA gov primary since 2006 where D turnout exceeded R.

Opened

September 12, 2026

Expected resolution

November 3, 2026

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