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ElectionActive
Lula da Silva re-election (Brazil 2026)
Will Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Superseded by #560 — the current EHIQ number on this question. This call stays on the record and is graded at its own dated number.
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
55%
(50-64%)
Edge
+42.5pp
EHIQ above market
The call vs the market, dated
Opened May 10, 2026. The at-open probability stamps on this call have not passed provenance verification and are excluded from all statistics; the resolved outcome is unaffected.
EHIQ vs market over time · 44 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
September 2026 read, machine-blind, basis in drafts/RESEARCH_brazil_2026_race_blind_2026-09-18.md (fact-checked 9/18: 38 confirmed, 4 softened and applied, 0 dropped). A near-coin-flip with a Lula lean. He leads every credible first-round poll (36-44% across houses); first-round leaders are 7-for-7 in Brazilian runoffs; incumbents are 3-1 since 1997. His runoff floor held ~46% across three straight Datafolha waves (Sept 3 to 11 to 17), spanning the Banco Master unsealing - the scandal is priced and the number did not move. The race turns on right-leaning transfer flows (Cury/Caiado/Zema, 13-17% combined) and who finishes first Oct 4. Restated 58% to 55% on 2026-09-20 to center the band. Resolves Oct 25.
Opened
May 10, 2026
Expected resolution
October 25, 2026
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