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Josh Turek (D) wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election
Will Josh Turek (D) win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
premise verified 0h ago
EHIQ
37%
Edge
-5.2pp
EHIQ below market
The call vs the market, dated
EHIQ called this at 61% on September 27, 2026 when the market was at 42%.
Revised to 37% based on new analysis — see thesis updates below for revision history.
Market has since moved up to 43% · +1.0pp toward EHIQ opposite
EHIQ vs market over time · 17 data points · refreshed daily
EHIQMarket
Thesis
REPRICED 2026-10-09 (stamped): 61% → 37.3% — the 10/08 debate, scored speaker by speaker, read Hinson −0.64 vs Turek −1.43 on momentum; the call moved to Hinson-favored. The venue leg prints 42.5% for Turek as of 2026-10-11. Original 2026-09-27 basis (the register read, since repriced): across 8 spontaneous speeches each, Hinson read defensive under pressure (desperation markers +12.6, +23.6, +11.0 on three of eight — regulation, nuclear, healthcare questions), while Turek read like a winner in waiting (primary victory speech +1.84 momentum; calm on MS NOW); margin 1.92 on the 20-race leader-margin logistic, control-passed (misfiled-video removal moved it 1.92→1.91). Caveats carried: Turek is a first-time statewide candidate with a thin corpus against Hinson's years of House footage; Iowa's rightward structural shift is the force the register cannot see — the 10-09 debate read is what that force looked like. If Hinson wins, the original read stands recorded at full size.
- 1.2026-10-09Current basis: the 10/08 debate, scored speaker by speaker (84% of candidate words attributed, 5/5 press-quote checks), read Hinson -0.64 vs Turek -1.43 on momentum, a 0.79 margin for Hinson; the 20-race calibration maps that to 37.3% for Turek. Debate-vs-debate reads are untested in that calibration.
- 2.2026-09-27Superseded 2026-10-09 (original basis, kept for the record): Momentum scorer (20-race calibrated logistic): Hinson -1.96 vs Turek -0.04 mean momentum across 8 speeches each, margin 1.92 -> Turek 61.3%.
- 3.2026-09-27Superseded 2026-10-09 (original basis, kept for the record): Hinson desperation markers +12.6/+23.6/+11.0 on three of eight (regulation, nuclear, healthcare). Turek: primary victory speech +1.84, Buttigieg endorsement week, calm on MS NOW.
- 4.2026-09-27Superseded 2026-10-09 (original basis, kept for the record): Control pass: misfiled Turek video in Hinson's corpus and Buttigieg endorsement clip in Turek's removed -> margin 1.91. Call unchanged. Polls: dead heat (DDHQ avg Turek +0.5; Cook Toss-Up; DDHQ model Hinson 56%).
Opened
September 27, 2026
Expected resolution
November 3, 2026
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