Sample morning brief
The exact email subscribers get before the open. The top block is personalized to their linked positions — three sections, capped at five items each. The bottom block is the global macro brief. This page renders the live regime against a representative book (IRON · HUT · OPEN · HOOD · PLTR · NVDA · MSTR); your version reads YOUR book.
From the elections desk · Sharp $19/mo
One hit and one miss, with the grade.
The free board shows you a probability. Sharp shows you the argument — and then the grade. Two calls from the elections desk, verbatim from the ledger: one we got right, one we got wrong.
THE HIT · logged before the vote
Iowa Senate D Primary — Turek over Wahls
EHIQ 66% · Kalshi 35% · resolves June 2, 2026
The two public polls of this race disagree by nearly 40 points — one favors each candidate — so a poll-based read collapses to a coin flip and carries no information. Our language-based signal favors Turek. We haircut the conviction deliberately because intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime for the method than general elections. Direction: a market FADE, logged before the vote.
- · The two public polls are ~38 points apart — one favors each candidate. A poll-aggregation read can’t separate them; it lands on a coin flip with no signal.
- · Our language-based signal favors Turek; the market (Kalshi) favors Wahls at roughly 63–65%.
- · Intra-party primaries are a lower-confidence regime than general elections, so we widen the band rather than claim full signal strength — the call is haircut from a raw ~75% to ~66%.
- · This is a market FADE logged before the vote. Resolves on primary day, June 2, 2026.
The follow-up: Turek won the Iowa Democratic Senate primary 62.6% to 37.4% (AP projected June 2, 98%+ counted). EHIQ called Turek at 65–66% against Kalshi’s 35% — a +31pp market fade, graded in public.
THE MISS · reasoning intact
Michigan Senate D Primary — Abdul El-Sayed
EHIQ 42% · market 65% · resolved August 4, 2026
EHIQ reads El-Sayed a modest underdog (~42%), not the market’s ~65% favorite. The freshest poll has him down 7, he faces the same Black-voter wall that sank him in 2018 (down 67–21 in Detroit), and a roughly 12-to-1 outside-spending wave is landing for Haley Stevens in the closing weeks. The market looks anchored to a stale post-dropout high. The edge is to fade El-Sayed.
The follow-up: El-Sayed won, 48.5% to 47.5% — a 1-point margin. The market had 65% and was right; we were wrong by 23 points on a priced question. The reasoning stays on the record, dated and unedited. That is what the record is for.
From the morning brief · Premium $249/mo
A real brief from a real day — September 24, 2026.
This is the actual brief Premium subscribers received that morning, unedited. Note what it does at the top: the canonical regime is suppressed because its source had stopped being readable, and the brief says so — then positions anyway. A product that tells you when its own inputs are broken is the product.
Where We Are: Stress Accumulating, No Regime Read to Anchor It
The canonical BTC regime is unavailable — suppressed after 152 days of an unchanged constant series. Without it, directional macro framing is off the table. What’s here instead: a stress accumulation signal with no capitulation floor visible.
1. Promotional Yield Anomaly at SEVERE — yield curve distortion at its most extreme tier. This is credit stress leaking into macro structure, not noise. Rate-sensitive growth equities are the first casualty.
2. BTC Dominance RISING + BTC Combined Timer at REDUCE — dominance rising means alts bleed faster than BTC. Both confirm the same thing: this isn’t a rotation into risk, it’s a defensive contraction within crypto. BTC at $83,423 (-2.4%) and ETH at $2,645 (-2.8%) are moving in lockstep with the signal.
3. ETH Gas Fee Regime + EIP-1559 Burn Rate both ELEVATED, TVL Momentum ELEVATED, DeFi TVL RISING — on-chain activity is genuinely elevated. This is the disagreement: DeFi is active while the macro timer says reduce. Activity is not protection. It’s the last holdout before broader deleveraging hits.
Positioning: Reduce BTC and ETH exposure — the timer is REDUCE and overrides on-chain reads. Avoid rate-sensitive growth names: OPEN, AFRM, JOBY, BETR — Promotional Yield SEVERE maps directly here. Don’t chase DeFi activity as a bullish tell: gas fees elevated plus stress rising equals crowded, not confirmed.
[2 sensor(s) withheld from this brief (FROZEN): growth-valuation, real-rate. A withheld sensor is not a quiet one — its reading was refused as mock or unchanged, so read the absence as missing input, not as calm.]
Dated, real, and archived — pull any other day and it reads the same way.
Your book today
7 positions · capped 5/section
What changed
No regime changes on your names in the last 24h.
What it means
IRON: Fed Surprise Sensor ELEVATED
Surprise moves cause asset repricing. Hawkish surprises pressure risk assets; dovish surprises support them.
HOOD: Fed Surprise Sensor ELEVATED
Surprise moves cause asset repricing. Hawkish surprises pressure risk assets; dovish surprises support them.
OPEN: Fed Surprise Sensor ELEVATED
Surprise moves cause asset repricing. Hawkish surprises pressure risk assets; dovish surprises support them.
HUT: BTC Cycle Turn Composite RISING
One condition met.
PLTR: Economic Policy Uncertainty Sensor RISING
EPU 150-200. Elevated uncertainty. Caution warranted.
What to watch
Fed Surprise Sensor on IRON — watch for the transition out of ELEVATED
the resolving move on your highest-severity exposure
NVDA is your largest position — track its sensor regime
Macro brief
REDUCE — the macro regime is broad risk-off, led by financial conditions: yield-curve distortion, tightening real rates, and capital flow at multi-sigma lows. Capital-preservation posture, not a buy-the-dip setup.
- – BTC trades ~19% above its 200-day SMA (~$70.9k as of Sep 24, 2026) — the price trend is intact; the stress is financial-conditions-led, not price-trend-led.
- – TGA liquidity draining ~$32B/week → fiscal drain compounds rate pressure.
- – 10Y TIPS > 2% → refi pressure concentrates in rate-sensitive names.
- – Contrarian gauges still 0.0 → no capitulation yet; middle of a stress cycle, not its end.
- – VIX 18.9 and Risk Appetite 88.9 price no stress while nine macro sensors fire ELEVATED/SEVERE.
Buy The Dip composite ramping from 0.0 to 0.5+ → the actual capitulation setup. Until then, the bottom isn’t in.
Get this every market morning
Subscribers get the brief above before the open — personalized to their linked positions plus the global macro read. The Sunday recap follows the same shape (regime moves on your book + every prediction resolved that week).
Questions? Email eric@eventhorizoniq.com.