2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?
EHIQ reads a higher probability than Polymarket by 16.5pp. What settles it: resolves 2026-11-03.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 45% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 37% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Machine proposal, blind to the market: generic ballot D+6.8 (9/11 aggregator average) converts to a 25-35 seat D House gain against a +3 threshold → P(D House) ≈ 0.82. Senate math: D nets ≈ +2 (NC, ME) but stalls in Trump +8 states (TX/OH/IA/AK) → P(R Senate) ≈ 0.60. The legs correlate through one environment, so joint = P(D House) − P(both D) = 0.82 − 0.37 ≈ 0.45. The split is the modal 2018 shape (D House +40, R Senate +2).
Resolution source: Certified 2026 midterm results: Republican Senate majority AND Democratic House majority jointly.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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