David Eby's NDP wins the most seats in the 2026 BC election
Will David Eby's NDP win the most seats in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia general election?
EHIQ reads a higher probability than Polymarket by 23.5pp. What settles it: resolves 2026-10-24.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 49% on Sep 27, 2026, market was 50% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
BC: the register reads Eby (NDP) and Doerkson (Conservatives) as a dead heat; October polls run Conservative +5 to +8. Re-read at the 14 Oct leaders' debate. This number is a language read only. It does not use polls. On the 2026-10-03 top-up (Doerkson n=28, Eby n=19, uploads 9/28 onward, frozen scoring matrix), fresh momentum reads Eby -0.068 vs Doerkson +0.013, a margin of 0.081: coin-flip scale, nominal leader Doerkson. EHIQ 46% for the NDP (the 9/27 open was 49%, and the 10/24 grade scores that open). The polls disagree, and that disagreement is the test this call exists to run: Liaison Strategies (Oct 7-8) Conservatives 43, NDP 37; Angus Reid (Oct 1-3) 48-43; Mainstreet (Sep 30-Oct 1) 45-37. If the Conservatives win the most seats, the register missed and the miss publishes at full size.
Resolution source: Elections BC certified seat counts for the 2026 British Columbia general election (2026-10-24) — NDP wins the most seats or not, per the Polymarket resolution rule for british-columbia-general-election-winner.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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