Dem House control 2026
Will Democrats win the US House in 2026?
EHIQ reads a higher probability than Polymarket by 1.8pp. What settles it: resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25 · resolves 2026-11-04.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 65% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 78% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Democrats win the House: EHIQ 92.3%, the simple mean of three verified forecast models (Silver Bulletin ~93%, FiftyPlusOne 99%, VoteHub polls-and-fundamentals 85%, all as of 2026-10-11), with no prediction-market input.
- •Forecast anchor: Silver Bulletin model, Democrats 93.1% to win the House as of 2026-10-08 (avg 238.7 D seats).
- •Generic ballot: D 49.3 - R 41.9 (D+7.4), October 2026 average.
- •Held below the model: one shared systematic-polling-error risk across the stack. Superseded 2026-10-12: the May desk judgment at 65%.
Resolution source: Polymarket settlement of `will-the-democratic-party-control-the-house-after-the-2026-midterm-elections`. That market resolves to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm, meaning a majority of the chamber's voting seats. Verified against the venue's published description 2026-09-01.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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