Election
Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
EHIQ
57%
on: Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Polymarket
33%
as of Oct 12 (19h ago)
Divergence
+24.5pp
EHIQ reads a higher probability than Polymarket by 24.5pp. What settles it: resolves 2026-11-03.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 57% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 45% at open.
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Machine proposal, blind to the market: polls say a dead tie (Emerson early Sept Acton 46/45; Fox Aug R+2; aggregates RCP Acton +0.3 to R +0.8) — a tie in an R-lean state with the midterm penalty already priced. Fundamentals prior ~0.63 (Ohio gov runs ~R+12 vs national environment, 2018 calibration); weight polls 0.6 / fundamentals 0.4 → 0.55, +2 for Ramaswamy's 3:1 cash-on-hand edge and Trump endorsement → 0.57.
Resolution source: The Associated Press race call for the 2026 Ohio governor race.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
Embed this call
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<iframe src="https://eventhorizoniq.com/embed/call/ohio-governor-republican-2026" width="560" height="150" frameborder="0" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" loading="lazy" title="EHIQ: Republicans win the 2026 Ohio governor race"></iframe>
premise verified 0h ago