2028 presidency — Pete Buttigieg

EHIQ register-derived underpriced: Buttigieg has the structurally STRONGEST D primary register in the corpus — materially ahead of Newsom in side-by-side scoring. Polymarket prices him at only 2.05% — a 5x gap vs EHIQ 6%. Math: ~6-10% nominated × ~55-60% wins general (high electability profile) = 3-6%. Polymarket likely overweighting Newsom's operational advantages and underweighting Buttigieg's register strength + general-election profile.

• •Buttigieg register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, very low qualifier rate. register stress in normal range.
• •High general-election electability: Midwest + working-class register + military + governance experience as DOT Secretary.
• •Cleanest LONG mispricing on the D side — EHIQ +3 to +4pp upstream of Polymarket on the field-leader-by-register thesis.
• •PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22: EHIQ 5% → 6% after SEM v1.2 build. SEM v1.2 D-nomination probability = 27.45% (v1.1 was 19.52%; +9.4pp uplift after long-lead compression + withdrawal multiplier 0.15). Apples-to-apples to presidency: 27.45% × ~55% general electability ≈ 15%. Gap to prior EHIQ 5% = +10pp (at threshold). Long-lead damping per migration-note discipline ("DO NOT cite long-lead probabilities as informed forecasts") moves EHIQ modestly toward SEM: conservative 1pp bump. TIQ specificity Buttigieg 22.99 (MODERATE_CONVICTION; highest D field per 2026-05-22 scoring) directionally supportive but §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) prohibits claiming TIQ-validated.

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