2028 presidency: Nikki Haley

Polymarket extremely low at 0.85%. EHIQ revised UP to 7% from prior 4.5% after SEM v1.2 build. SEM v1.2 R-nomination probability = 15.52% (poll baseline 4-5% × long-lead compression x0.6 toward 50/50 × withdrawal multiplier 0.30). Apples-to-apples presidency: 15.52% × ~60% general electability (highest electability profile in R field — moderate, female, foreign-policy chops) ≈ 9.3%. 50% damping from prior 4.5% baseline: 4.5 + 0.5*(9.3-4.5) ≈ 6.9% → 7%. Path requires Vance collapse OR Trump endorsement redirect — both possible over 2.5 year horizon. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag (Haley not consistently included in 2028 R primary trackers).

• •Prior 2024 R primary candidate — name ID + donor network + Trump-critic positioning.
• •Highest general-election electability of any R: moderate suburban appeal + foreign-policy gravitas + female.
• •Path requires Vance collapse OR Trump endorsement redirect — both possible over 2.5 year horizon.
• •PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22 (PART 2): EHIQ 4.5% → 7% after SEM v1.2 build. New SEM file `sem_us_president_2028_haley.json` / `.prov.json`. SEM v1.2 R-nomination = 15.52% (raw P 3.62% → long-lead compression x0.6 → 22.2% → withdrawal multiplier 0.30 → 15.5%). Apples-to-apples ≈ 15.52% × 60% gen electability ≈ 9.3%. 50% damping from prior 4.5% baseline → 7%. NOT TIQ-scored. INSUFFICIENT_POLLING flag (2028 R primary polling does not consistently include Haley as named option; analyst-supplied 4-5% poll share). Trump-critic positioning + re-run base rate (Reagan 1980 / McCain 2008 / Romney 2012 / Biden 2020 all won post-loss-renomination) supports nomination-path narrowly.

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