Election
2028 presidency — Kamala Harris
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?
EHIQ
2%
on: Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US presidential election?
Polymarket
5%
as of Oct 12 (19h ago)
Divergence
-3.0pp
EHIQ reads a lower probability than Polymarket by 3.0pp. What settles it: resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25 · resolves 2028-11-07.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 2% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 5% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
EHIQ register read shows mid-tier register — neither dominant nor weak. 2024 loss is a hard ceiling regardless of register — Dems rarely renominate the immediately-preceding losing nominee. Math: ~3% nominated × ~30% wins general = ~1%. Polymarket 5.4% materially overprices. SHORT cleanest mispricing on the D side.
- •Harris register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate
- •2024 loss creates structural primary ceiling — modern precedent strongly against renomination.
- •Polymarket 5.4% likely reflects name-recognition residual + lingering 2024-base loyalty rather than realistic primary path.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
Markets
Embed this call
iframe — paste into any page
<iframe src="https://eventhorizoniq.com/embed/call/prez-2028-harris" width="560" height="150" frameborder="0" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" loading="lazy" title="EHIQ: 2028 presidency — Kamala Harris"></iframe>
premise verified 0h ago