2028 presidency — JD Vance

RECONCILIATION 2026-10-03 (stamped desk:eric, "FIX BOTH and UPDATE BOTH"; TIQ/LAS-only constraint, v6 doctrine - NO SEM, NO polling): ehiq_prob 0.27 -> 0.16. Rule declared before computing: presidency = nomination x general. Nomination = 0.32, the read of record on prez-2028-vance-overrated (freshen-stamped 2026-09-27; TIQ/LAS speaker-isolation evidence). General = 0.50 DECLARED ASSUMPTION - the TIQ/LAS evidence does not reach the general: the 20-race leader-margin logistic requires BOTH nominees' scored corpora and the Democratic nominee is unknown; no other TIQ/LAS leg speaks to the general. The prior inconsistency, named: this row's May 2026 build (~50-55% nominated x ~50% general = 25-28%) was never reconciled to the July/September 0.32 nomination read, so 0.27 vs 0.32 printed an 84% conditional that the row's own ~50% general assumption contradicts - an artifact, not a view. The 2026-05-22 SEM leg (sem-1.2-2026-05-22, SEM nomination 65.56%) is retired from the derivation under the TIQ/LAS-only constraint. Range 0.22-0.34 -> 0.15-0.19 (nomination range 0.30-0.38 x 0.50). Prior text preserved below. --- PRIOR TEXT --- EHIQ leader for 2028 presidency. Sitting VP with Trump succession blessing. Math: ~50-55% nominated × ~50% wins general (incumbent-party headwind balanced by Trump coalition durability) = 25-28 percent. Polymarket 20.3% — EHIQ +8pp upstream. EHIQ register scoring scoring (May 2026): register score, high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate Vance has the strongest establishment-R register; Tucker tops him on register but lacks structural path.

• •Vance register score: high personal-anchoring, decisive register, qualifier rate (intellectual register, qualifies specifics while expressing personal conviction).
• •Modern R primary VP-frontrunner conversion rate ~70%. EHIQ holds Vance nomination probability at 50-55% after factoring Tucker insurgency + Rubio pivot + splitter risks.
• •General election: ~50% R wins. Incumbent-party second-term headwind, but Trump coalition durability + Vance youth/competence offset.
• •Polymarket Rubio at 15.15% (2nd-highest) is the surprise — market is pricing meaningful establishment-pivot scenario from Vance to Rubio. EHIQ Rubio at 8% — less convinced the pivot happens.
• •PROBABILITY REVISION TIMESTAMPED 2026-05-22: EHIQ 25% → 27% after SEM v1.2 build (`sem-1.2-2026-05-22`). SEM v1.2 R-nomination probability = 65.56% (v1.1 was 90.42%, dropped after long-lead t_unc cap raise + compression x0.6 + withdrawal multiplier 0.10). Apples-to-apples to /predictions presidency question: SEM-implied ≈ 65.56% × ~50% general ≈ 33%. Long-lead damping per migration-note discipline ("DO NOT cite long-lead probabilities as informed forecasts") moves EHIQ modestly toward SEM (50% weight): 25 + 0.5×(33-25) ≈ 29 → conservative-rounded to 27%. TIQ specificity Vance 24.98 (MODERATE_CONVICTION per 2026-05-22 scoring) supportive but §4 OOS Phase C FAIL (ρ=+0.18, p=0.35) prohibits claiming TIQ-validated.

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