GA Senate — Ossoff retention
Will Jon Ossoff (D) retain his Georgia Senate seat in 2026?
EHIQ reads a lower probability than Polymarket by 34.3pp. What settles it: resolves on the event; confirmed 2026-07-25 · resolves 2026-11-04.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 62% on Jul 26, 2026, no market at registration (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
+The argument — why we think itthe thesis and the reasoning behind the call
Ratings agencies call this race a tossup. The September polls say otherwise right now: five averages put Ossoff +7.8 over Rep. Mike Collins (50.6-42.8), with YouGov at +10 and the tightest (Quantus) at +4; Trafalgar's crosstabs show Ossoff +15 with women and +31 with ages 30-39, and his $81M raised to Collins's $5.5M is a 15-to-1 resource gap. Emerson's late-winter poll had Ossoff +5 over Collins (48-43). The market is pricing certainty at 95.5% — and there is no certainty in Georgia: Ossoff won his 2021 runoff by 1.2 points, the Republican field was unsettled for a cycle (Purdue, Kemp noise), and a Libertarian (Allen Buckley) could pull the winner under 50 and force a December 1 runoff. EHIQ at 62% holds the register bearishness that the September polls are fighting — the explicit miss-risk, stated: if the +7.8 polling average holds into October, this level was wrong in the same direction as the El-Sayed primary miss, and it moves up. EHIQ 62% vs Polymarket 95.5%.
+The evidence — markets, embeds, data notestracked markets, embed code, and the as-of/liveness detail
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