The Midterm Board
Every live EHIQ election call, priced against the named venue and ranked by how far our probability sits from the market price. Each call is dated at open and linked so you can see the market for yourself. Election day is November 3, 2026, 22 days out.
Prices come from the same refresh that feeds our weekly digest. A price older than 24 hours is withheld rather than shown stale. The full cross-category board lives on /divergence, and every resolved call is graded on /record.
Live election calls
30 trackedWill Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 68% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 77% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 62% on Jul 26, 2026, no market at registration (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 68% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 50% at open.
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 17% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will the Democratic nominee win the 2026 Iowa governor race?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 55% on Sep 2, 2026, market was 77% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 57% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 45% at open.
Will David Eby's NDP win the most seats in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia general election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 49% on Sep 27, 2026, market was 50% at open.
Will Jon Husted (R) win the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 60% on Sep 27, 2026, market was 42% at open.
After the 2026 US midterms, will the composition be Republican Senate and Democratic House?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 45% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 37% at open.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 32% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 41% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Abdul El-Sayed (D) win the 2026 Michigan Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 60% on Sep 27, 2026, market was 74% at open.
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 4% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 5% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 7% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 1% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 80% on Oct 6, 2026, market was 84% at open.
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 47% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 42% at open.
Will James Talarico (D) win the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 56% on Sep 29, 2026, market was 61% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 4% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 4% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 15% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 17% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Josh Turek (D) win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 61% on Sep 27, 2026, market was 42% at open.
Provenance: EHIQ registered 8% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 3% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 27% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 19% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 6% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 2% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 2% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 5% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will a Republican win the South Carolina US Senate seat (Lindsey Graham vacancy) in the November 3, 2026 election?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 87% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 81% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 10% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 15% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 65% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 78% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Bernie Sanders endorse James Talarico in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race by November 2, 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 22% on Sep 12, 2026, market was 26% at open.
Will Susan Collins (R) retain her Maine Senate seat in 2026?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 50% on Jul 26, 2026, no market at registration (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Provenance: EHIQ registered 16% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 20% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
Provenance: EHIQ registered 2% on Jul 26, 2026, market mid was 3% (prereg'd, evidence-grade).
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